and ronald reagan won that election in a landslide. more recently osama bin laden released a video four days before the 2004 election, remember? that reminder of the 9/11 attacks probably helped george w. bush win a second term. 2008 the financial meltdown technically that started in september with the collapse of lehman brothers, but it was a moment that boosted barack obama and highlighted john mccain's weakness when it came to the economy. so what about this year 2012? that old video of an angry speech with racial overtones by then candidate obama which resurfaced last night could sway some voters. or maybe the surprise is still lurking out there somewhere. tonight's debate has the potential to provide one. there's always a chance for significant economic news, jobs report, the potential for the u.s. to go off that well-talked about fiscal cliff. and it's not hard to imagine some unexpected event in the middle east, take your pick, iran, israel, syria, libya. here's the question, what will be the october surprise in this year's pres